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Lucas, Robert

US economist. Lucas did not invent the theory of rational expectations but he has been its most vigorous advocate, insisting that, because the expectations of economic agents are ‘rational’, monetary and fiscal policy are ‘neutral’ and only affect physical output and employment in the extremely short run. For him, new classical macroeconomics based on the concept of rational expectations is irreconcilably opposed to Keynesian economics. He won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1995 for his work as leader of this new school.

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